Navigationsweiche Anfang

Navigationsweiche Ende

Choisissez la langue

Contact

Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen

Rainer-Gruenter-Str. 21
D-42119 Wuppertal

Tel: +49-(0)202-439 1371
Fax: +49-(0)202-439 1377
Mobil: +49-(0)174-702 0924

welfens(at)eiiw.uni-wuppertal.de

Actualités

  • Pressemiteilung: Eurobonds-Ansatz nur als vernünftiges Finanzprodukt
    Chancen und Risiken von differenzierten Euro-Gemeinschaftsanleihen sorgfältig zu... [Read more]
  • New Discussion Paper (Advance Version March 30th) Macroeconomic and Health Care Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: EU, US and Global Perspectives
    Summary: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic represents a major challenge for the world... [Read more]
  • Makroökonomische und gesundheitspolitische Aspekte der Coronavirus-Epidemie: EU, USA und globale Perspektiven
    Zusammenfassung: Die neuartige CoronaviRus (COVID-19)-Epidemie stellt eine große Herausforderung... [Read more]
  • Macroeconomic and Health Care Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: EU, US and Global Perspectives
    Summary: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic represents a major challenge for the world... [Read more]
  • Prof. Paul JJ Welfens in UC Berkeley (Feb, 2020) | The Global Trump
    Prof. Paul JJ Welfens presented his book The Global Trump: Structural US Populism and Economic... [Read more]
go to Archive ->

Macroeconomic and Health Care Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: EU, US and Global Perspectives

Summary: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic represents a major challenge for the world economy. While a detailed longer-term diffusion path of the new virus cannot be anticipated for individual countries, one may anticipate international supply shocks and declining GDP growth in many OECD countries and China in 2020; and one should expect falling asset prices in Asia, the United States and the European Union plus the United Kingdom – except for the price of risk-free government bonds. In the course of 2020/21 the US, the EU and the UK, as well as other countries, will face both an increasing number of infected patients as well as a higher case fatality ratio. Health care expenditures in the US will increase more than in the Eurozone and the EU in the medium term, a development that undermines the international competitiveness of the United States. Regression results show that per capita income is a positive function of the effective trade openness and of the new Global Health Security Index indicator from the NTI/Johns Hopkins University. A rising health care-GDP ratio in the US is equivalent to a rising US export tariff. As regards the coronavirus challenge, the ratio of acute care beds to the elderly in OECD countries shows considerable variation. Output growth in the Eurozone, the US and China can be expected to fall by about 1.6% in 2020. The COVID-19 challenge for the US Trump Administration is a serious one, since the lack of experts in the Administration will become more apparent in such a systemic stress situation – and this might well affect the November 2020 US presidential election which, in turn, would itself have considerable impacts on the UK and the EU27 as well as EU-UK trade negotiations. Many countries will face a massive shock from a sharp epidemic-related decline of tourism.

Download as PDF