BREXIT Monitor

BREXIT MONITOR

An Accidental BREXIT (Palgrave Macmillan)

Click on the link above to see our 2019 overview. For 2017, see Brexit Monitor 2017

September 2019 After a turbulent Summer, with the election of Boris Johnson as new PM, Parliament appears to have taken charge of BREXIT in the UK. With negotiations with the EU all but stalled, and Parliament in a deadlock, Johnson has taken the unsuual move of proroguing Parliament for 5 weeks. For an update on developments see recent comment from Prof. Welfens here

April 2019 New research from the Bertelsmann Stiftung estimates the economic benefits of the Single Market for European countries and regions, read the policy paper here

11 April 2019 After no clear majority was found for any Brexit solution, Prime Minister May requests a further extension which is granted by the European Council - until October 31 with May promising more talks with Labour to find common ground and a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement

27 March 2019 As voting gets underway in Westminster on the indicative votes, what problems, issues and possible solutions remain for the United Kingdom as the possible implementation of BREXIT approaches? Read more here

20 March 2019 Prime Minister Theresa May writes to President of the European Council Donald Tusk requesting an extension of the Article 50 process until 30 June 2019, read her letter here

March 2019 New IZA Discussion Paper presenting a rewiew of Brexit-related contributions to the economic academic literature - including the paper by Barry Eichengreen from the special issue

13 March 2019 New BREXIT-related SPECIAL ISSUE International Economics and Economic Policy featuring papers by Barry Eichengreen, Paul Welfens and many more (for Table of Contents click here), for short time all papers available OPEN ACCESS HERE

13 February 2019 Two-page summary update of the BREXIT process from Prof. Dr. Welfens, including discussion of an extension to Article 50 available to read here

11 February 2019 New research from IWH Halle Institute for Economic Research on the international employment effects of a hard Brexit including estimated job losses for Germany, US and China can be read/downloaded here

15 January 2019 Prime Minister May loses a historic vote on the Withdrawal Agreement by 432 - 202, margin of 230 votes

14 January 2019 Prime Minister May and President of the Commission Juncker exchange letters on assurances regarding the Withdrawal Agreement

January 2019 Debate and vote on the Withdrawal Agreement has been pencilled in for early January

12 December 2018 PM May survives a vote of no-confidence within the Conservative Party, winning by 200-117 votes

10 December 2018 Prime Minister postpones a scheduled vote on 11 December on the propsed Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons indefinitely

24 November 2018 Prime Minster May issues a "Letter to the Nation" calling on the British public to support the deal her government has reached with the European Union

15 November 2018 Resignation of UK's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union - "Brexit Secretary" - Dominic Raab (and Esther McVey Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, plus two junior Ministers). Michael Gove refuses offer to replace Raab. A vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May and a leadership challenge is likely in the coming days.

14 November 2018 British Government publishes the Draft Agreement on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union

13 November 2018 A draft deal in sight? Senior British cabinet ministers summoned to No. 10 Downing Street to be presented with details of a draft Withdrawal Agreement..

9 November 2018 Jo Johnson, Minister for Transport and Minister for London (and brother of Boris Johnson) who backed Remain in the 2016 referendum, resigns from the British government calling for a second referendum. Johnson argued that a No-deal scenario meant that Britain was "on the brink of the greatest crisis" since the Second World War and that any deal no achievable would not be anything like what had been promised by Brexiteers. Johnson called for a second referendum.

23 August 2018 As new Brexit Minister Dominic Raab was outlining the government's plans and releasing initial papers on a no deal scenario, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond releases a letter reaffirming findings that a No Deal Brexit could leave UK GDP 7.7% lower after 15 years, while borrowing by 2033/34 would be £80 billion higher, and referred to the findings of "credible external organisations" such as the IMF, OECD, LSE and NIESR - the experts that people 'had had enough of' according to Michael Gove; and findings that were described as Project Fear. See a copy of the letter here

19 July 2018 Communication from the European Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Central Bank, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank on preparations regarding the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019

12 July 2018 UK Government White Paper on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union is released, read here

9 July 2018 Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigns from the British Cabinet to be replaced by Jeremy Hunt citing the Prime Minister's Chequers Plan for advancing Brexit negotiations.

9 July 2018 Dominic Raab named new Secretary of State for Exiting the EU with responsibility to take over the Brexit negotiations from David Davis

8 July 2018 Minister with responsibility for Brexit negotiations, Secretary of State for Exiting the EU David Davis resigns along with junior minister Steve Baker (other resignations in the civil service and within the Conservative Party follow).

6 July 2018 The Cabinet agrees a new proposal and united position to move forward with negotiations which garners grudging support within Government circles and is unlikely to be acceptable in whole by the EU negotiating team.

July 2018 Crunch meeting for the British Cabinet at Chequers.. finally a united position or political turmoil?...

29 June 2018 European Council Summit (Article 50) Conclusions - Some progress made but questions remain: territorial applicability of Withdrawal Agreement (Gibraltar), "no substantial progress" made on NI backstop solution, progress on political declaration concerning the framework of future relationships and EU willingness to compromise stressed...

27 June 2018 “Slow-down of BREXIT and Transatlantic Trade Conflicts” Prof Welfens hosts BREXIT Panel Discussion, 27.06.2018, 1-2 pm, Renaissance Hotel, Brussels. See Key Aspects of the book An Accidental BREXIT and Role of Protectionist US Trade Policy

24 April 2018 Welfens/Baier paper "BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings" published in International Journal of Financial Studies available to read and download under open access here

April 2018 Korus/Celebi EIIW Discussion Paper "The Impact of BREXIT on the British Pound/Euro Exchange Rate" - the authors analyze the impact of specific BREXIT-related news events, classified as "good news" and "bad news" on the Sterling/Euro exchange rate - EIIW Discussion Paper 243

March 2018 EIIW Discussion Paper from PJJ Welfens "International Risk Management in BREXIT and Policy Option - EIIW Paper 242

January 2018 New Welfens/Baier EIIW Discussion Paper on BREXIT and FDI dynamics - EIIW Paper 241

January 2018 New EIIW Discussion Paper Welfens/Hanrahan - BREXIT: Key Analytical Issues and Insights from Revised Economic Forecasts EIIW Paper 235

11 January 2018 Prof Welfens' response to the op-ed by Hammond and Davis which is an erroneous and misleading representation of BREXIT.

10 January 2018 Publication of an op-ed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung - read the official UK government version of the article here (in English)

30 December 2017 Lord Andrew Adonis, Chairman of the UK's National Infrastructure Commission, resigns his post, citing BREXIT and the UK government's approach to it as a motivating factor, read his resignation letter here

13 December 2017 An Accidental BREXIT is celebrating almost 7,000 downloads in the first three months!

11 December 2017 Please see the UCL BREXIT BLOG for a contribution from Prof. Welfens in the wake of a successful seminar at UCL European Institute in London

08 December 2017 Sufficient progress in Phase 1? The text of the Joint Report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom government can be found here

07 December 2017 Fleet Street, London: Luncheon presentation of An Accidental BREXIT to diplomats, academics, members of the business community and other guests

06 December 2017 London presentation of "An Accidental BREXIT" at University College London European Institute - presentation slides can be found here

Research Note on the True Cost of Brexit, showing -16% in national income for the UK can be read here

27 October 2017 A copy of the letter from Conservative government MP Chris Heaton-Harris which was sent to all universities across the UK in recent weeks soliciting information on teaching staff dealing with Brexit and their course content and materials. An example of interference in academic independence?

9 October 2017 Missed Prof. Welfens' contribution in Handelsblatt Global? Read "Delaying Brexit Would Be Bad, OK? Prime Minister May has suggested a two-year extension on Brexit. It could harm Germany, and Europe." here now

October 2017 New publication Welfens/Hanrahan in the latest edition of Intereconomics (Vol. 52, Issue 5): The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum now available to read online

27 September 2017 Did you miss the live twitter Q&A between @ProfPaulWelfens and @PalgraveEcon? The full interview can be found here

22 September 2017 Prof. Welfens' update to the Georgetown summary following PM Theresa May's speech in Santa Maria Novella Church, Florence.

18 September 2017 Two-page summary of Prof. Paul Welfens' presentation on An Accidental BREXIT at Georgetown University, Washington DC, on September 12 can be read here

17 September 2017 Letter from Sir David Norgrove (Chair of the UK Statistics Authority) to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson regarding the latter's questionable use of misleading statistics

12 September 2017 The slides which accompanied Prof. Welfens' presentation at Georgetown University, Washington DC can be found here

21 August 2017 Blog contribution from Prof. Welfens: Serious BREXIT-related Problems for the UK - Mystery surrounds the Suppression of Treasury Report Findings in Government Brochure here

August 2017 The summer edition of The International Economy magazine featuring an article by Prof. Welfens, A Brexit Perspective: The United Kingdom will face slow growth with America’s positioning within Europe weakened is out now! (correction pending).

July 2017 Welfens comment on the UK's National Audit Office report on HM Treasury's economic analysis prior to the BREXIT Referendum in June 2016.

26 June 2017 Welfens contribution to the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns Hopkins University published.

May 2017 Welfens/Hanrahan EIIW Discussion Paper No. 240 The BREXIT Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges after the EU Referendum can be read here

15 May 2017 Welfens contribution to Portal für Politikwissenschaft (German language): BREXIT aus Versehen – ein Überblick Das britische EU-Referendum 2016: Hintergründe, Widersprüche, Perspektiven

April 2017 How BREXIT is Undermining the Stability of the Wester World (Business Insights)

24 March 2017 Welfens - May's BREXIT Letter: Lacking in Legitimacy and Economic Reasoning - visit blog

March 2016 Welfens for the AICGS/Johns Hopkins University: British Referendum Pains and the EU Implications of BREXIT read here.

05 December 2017 Presentation of "An Accidental Brexit" at University College London, European Institute on December 6th. Please find the presentation slides here.
The True Cost of Brexit analysis can be downloaded here.